How Do I Use the Top Stacks Tool?

Top Stacks is a great way to get an overview of the full slate of hitting options. We always want to be stacking correlated hitters in MLB DFS, so looking for teams that have a high probability of scoring runs while drawing low ownership is critical. The Top Stacks tool includes several data points, such as the probability that a team will be the top stack of the night, the probability that the team will be the top value, or points-per-dollar, stack of the night, the team’s collective public ownership share as a stack and the team’s leverage score. Leverage is defined as the difference between public exposure and the probability of success. A positive leverage score means a team is not owned enough given their probability of success, while a negative number indicates that the field is getting to a team too much.

It is important to remember that positive leverage numbers are not the end of the discussion, comparing the leverage to the probability of success is critical. For example, a team with a 16% probability of being the top stack but 14% ownership would have just a 2.0 leverage score, while a team with a 4% probability of being the top stack but a 1% ownership share would have a 3.0 leverage score. One team is clearly the better option and is also somewhat under-owned.

It is also important to check the team’s ownership mark against individual hitters in that lineup. Frequently we will see concentrated ownership around only a few players driving up the overall mark for the team. Looking for highly correlated combinations of low-owned and chalky hitters is a good approach to rostering teams in that situation.