How to Interpret the NBA Boom/Bust Tool

The Boom/Bust Tool is one of the most powerful assets available for our members. The tool provides an overview of the entire slate in an effort to illustrate where the most advantageous plays are in terms of popularity and probability of success. 

In all DFS sports, being able to compare the strength of a player each day versus their popularity is key to success. In NBA, correlations between players are less valuable so the strength of each play can be considered individually. For each player, Awesemo calculates the standard deviation based on a variety of factors and use that to calculate the ceiling (75th-percentile performance). the floor (25th-percentile performance). and the probability that they will bust (not meeting value) or boom (value plus 10 points). Combining these metrics, provides an edge on the field by identifying under-owned or over-owned players. 

The tool contains several key metrics which we will define below. For these purposes, "value" is defined as a 5x performance.

Projection - the player's fantasy point scoring projection

Standard Deviation - the differential between outcomes that is used to calculate probabilities

Ceiling - an estimated maximum fantasy point score based on the player projection and standard deviation

Floor - an estimated minimum fantasy point score based on the player projection and standard deviation

Bust % - the probability that a player's output will fall short of value

Boom % - the probability that a player's output will reach value plus 10 points. 

Ownership % - the projected public popularity of a player in large field GPPs

Optimal % - the probability that the player will be in the perfect lineup for that slate based on simulations

Leverage - the differential between a player's projected public popularity and their optimal lineup appearance rate

The tool can be utilized to simply hunt for players who are likely to put up boom scores when we have a lineup that just needs a final piece, but the true power is in the optimal lineup rates and leverage score. The tool is an excellent guide toward good and bad chalk, and illustrates the difference between them.

In NBA DFS we will frequently see players who are at such value or such high probability of putting up a mandatory score that they become fundamental building blocks of lineup construction. These are the players with significantly high optimal lineup appearance rate percentages and - typically - high boom score percentages as well. When players are clear standouts we want to roster them frequently, even at negative leverage scores. Players who are pulling down negative leverage scores while not showing significantly separated optimal lineup rates or boom score probabilities are best skipped or used conservatively and in amounts under the field. 

Combining the various metrics and utilizing the boom/bust tool with either our Lineup Builder or Fantasy Cruncher provides a powerful leverage-based approach to lineup building.