NFL DFS Strategy Guide

excerpt from: https://www.awesemo.com/gameplan/draftkings-fanduel-nfl-dfs-strategy-guide/

September to January is the most exciting time in fantasy sports because of the huge prize pools and number of tournaments available with fantasy football. Football is everyone’s gateway game into daily fantasy because of the popularity of season long and the ease of having a whole week to do research and build lineups. Experienced players have been known to suffer from FOMO for each week that they miss. There aren’t that many chances to play compared to other sports so you have to make the most of each shot or opportunity: the NFL season goes for 5 months and like an “mmm-bop” it’s gone.

September to January is the most exciting time in fantasy sports because of the huge prize pools and number of tournaments available with fantasy football. Football is everyone’s gateway game into daily fantasy because of the popularity of season long and the ease of having a whole week to do research and build lineups. Experienced players have been known to suffer from FOMO for each week that they miss. There aren’t that many chances to play compared to other sports so you have to make the most of each shot or opportunity: the NFL season goes for 5 months and like an “mmm-bop” it’s gone.

NFL DFS Stacking

Most people stack their quarterback with at least a receiver because the winning quarterback of the week will frequently have to count the points from yards and touchdowns twice. Most weeks, the GPP winning quarterback will have 4+ passing touchdowns and 300+ yards, so if you can find the receiver who gets the lion’s share of the production you’re going to be in great shape. Stacking a second receiver is also a great idea because the second best receiver in that instance is also likely to exceed their projections for the week.

Other stacks are popular like full team stacks of QB/RB/WR/D, stacking D and a WR who returns kicks, or stacking RB/D. While these stacks don’t hurt your chances of success on a given night, there’s not a ton of evidence I’m aware of to suggest this is the optimal strategy for fantasy football. One strategy that I believe carries weight is stacking a player from the opposing team with your quarterback. Close games tend to feature more passing towards the end of the game so if you get one of those shoot-out games in your lineup, you’re going to be in great shape.

Projecting Player Performance

Good stats are harder to come by for NFL compared to other sports. The first issue is the lack of data points. With only 16 regular season games a year for each team, there aren’t nearly as many plays in the NFL as MLB, NBA, or NHL...