excerpt from: https://www.awesemo.com/mlb/mlb-dfs/
What is spring without fantasy baseball? Baseball is one of my favorite DFS sports, both in terms of enjoyability and profitability. As the least predictable of the major sports, it’s the perfect testing ground for advanced DFS strategies.
While accurate projections are critical to success in a sport like NBA, where LeBron James will score between 20 and 35 points the vast majority of the time, even the best MLB projections won’t help you determine with any confidence whether Bryce Harper will go 0-for-4 or hit two home runs. As a result, lineups built with less than perfect fantasy points projections can be competitive. The key to success in baseball is ensuring you have adequate correlation in your GPP lineups and sifting through large amounts of data, including ownership projections, rankings, lineups and weather.
Stacks
I’ve found that simply playing the highest-projected lineup in GPPs is not a profitable in the long run, regardless of the quality of projections. Instead you’ll want to focus on forcing players who are correlated into your lineup rather than focusing on projection alone. The primary correlation is between batters on the same team whose positive correlation stems from a variety of factors. First, the number of at-bats in a game varies, so each successful at-bat creates another opportunity to get fantasy points. Second, batters have the potential for extra points with runners in scoring position. Third, pitchers shorten their delivery with runners on base, leading to less effective pitching. And finally, once the game gets out of hand, teams will play guys from the back end of their bullpen rotation rather than wasting innings from their best relievers on a game that’s already been lost.
For a stack to work, there needs to be a team (or multiple teams) that night with an outlier performance. Since that is more likely to happen on a large slate, you should stack your players together more when there are more games to choose from. The best way to choose a stack is to focus on a team’s implied total based on sportsbook over/unders and the team’s chance of winning. I calculate implied totals and update them throughout the day on my MLB Rankings page...
read more: https://www.awesemo.com/mlb/mlb-dfs/
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