Why Do I Need Awesemo Projections and Data?

by Alex Baker

Accurate projections for player performance once were the Holy Grail of DFS, the crux of success and the primary concern of top-ranked players. Used in conjunction with game theory and diversification strategies, accurate projections will give you the best chance of coming out ahead in all your tournaments. But now that you can get elite projections for an affordable amount, the DFS landscape is changing: you can be successful without spending hours a day immersing yourself in a sport and grinding on your Excel spreadsheets. Many top-ranked DFS players even do not create their own projections for every sport they play. I know that because I can accurately predict their cash lineups each night.

When I started playing DFS, accurate projections were not readily available, so I was able to make a good return in contests simply by developing my own projections. I realized within days of playing the severe limitations of projection sources when I saw guys in a Coors Field game projected to be bad plays when sportsbooks had it as the highest scoring game. In 2020, there are limitations to projection sources but the commercialized ones can be pretty good. While making projections was once an essential skill to crush DFS, it’s no longer necessary to make a prime focus.

The safest route to go with projections is to use mine because they are proven by the money I invest and the return I have earned; as one of the foundations of my process, you can be sure that they are good enough to make money at any level. But when thousands of people have access to them, it’s wishful thinking that you can rely solely on picking lineups with the highest projected score and make money. You need to add in a little analysis and strategy of your own to differentiate from the competition. Now that the field is sharp at finding the best plays, there are two options: try to figure out errors in the industry consensus or rely more on other edges in lineup construction.

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